Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.23 – 104.82

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.4 ±10.7

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 162.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 75.47Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 34.43Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±13.3

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 18.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 35.49Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 50.93Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 6465, 5970

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 6465, 5970

Auto

26.4 10%

Teleop

141.8 52%

Endgame

105.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3636, 2915, 4662

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 2915, 4662

Auto

10.6 13%

Teleop

48.2 57%

Endgame

25.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score272.2pts

Blue projected score104.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.4
Score range: 68–309
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 207.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.4Season APEX188.7

26.4Auto10.6

141.8Teleop48.2

105.3Endgame25.9

111Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	16
teleop	123	46
endgame	35	13
foul	10	35
total	216	110

Result

Final score

216 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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