Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
137.45 – 234.83
23%77%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
373 – 223
Prediction missed · off by 123.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 123.52Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX -8.36Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 22.29Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454 ±8.8
Season APEX 169Event APEX 73.48Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 76.86Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 84.49Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6696, 2733, 9600
53
/ 100 compatProjected
137.5 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 6696, 2733, 9600
Auto
17.3 12%
Teleop
81.4 58%
Endgame
40.6 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10991, 2811, 957
73
/ 100 compatProjected
234.8 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 10991, 2811, 957
Auto
43.5 21%
Teleop
105.0 51%
Endgame
55.4 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.33
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score137.5pts
Blue projected score234.8pts
Red win probability23%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 73%, blue 72%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -97.4
- Score range
- 100–272
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
403.8Season APEX454
17.3Auto43.5
81.4Teleop105
40.6Endgame55.4
150Consistency77
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 61 | 33 |
| teleop | 213 | 115 |
| endgame | 79 | 60 |
| foul | 20 | 15 |
| total | 373 | 223 |
Result
Final score
373 – 223
Prediction missed · off by 123.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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