Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.79 – 372.2

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 112 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446 ±11.7

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 78.16Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 93.96Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 11.67Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.9 ±9.8

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 80.03Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 160.79Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 131.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8032, 4915, 6831

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8032, 4915, 6831

Auto

26.8 17%

Teleop

107.2 67%

Endgame

26.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 997, 955, 3674

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 997, 955, 3674

Auto

72.4 21%

Teleop

177.9 51%

Endgame

100.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.8pts

Blue projected score372.2pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -188.4
Score range: 147–409
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 205.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446Season APEX618.9

26.8Auto72.4

107.2Teleop177.9

26.3Endgame100.6

176Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	27
teleop	58	52
endgame	52	72
foul	5	10
total	171	161

Result

Final score

171 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 112 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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