Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.11 – 152.12

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.2 ±13.3

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 28.17Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX -11.28Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX -3.78Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.8 ±12.2

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 20.89Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 51.87Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 79.36Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2930, 3669, 9567

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 3669, 9567

Auto

26.8 100%

Teleop

-13.7 0%

Endgame

-3.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10444, 749, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10444, 749, 9430

Auto

39.6 24%

Teleop

82.9 51%

Endgame

41.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score13.1pts

Blue projected score152.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139
Score range: -25–190
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 209.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.2Season APEX265.8

26.8Auto39.6

-13.7Teleop82.9

-3.6Endgame41.1

119Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	34
teleop	24	115
endgame	29	34
foul	0	5
total	72	188

Result

Final score

72 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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