Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

308.56 – 158.34

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 119.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.9 ±10.5

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 43.39Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 126.94Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 138.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463 ±10.8

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 35.04Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX -7.07Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 130.37Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2557, 6696, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2557, 6696, 2471

Auto

60.6 20%

Teleop

177.2 60%

Endgame

58.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2521, 5975, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2521, 5975, 1540

Auto

28.5 20%

Teleop

74.7 53%

Endgame

39.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score308.6pts

Blue projected score158.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.2
Score range: 122–345
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 706 vs event baseline 200.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.9Season APEX463

60.6Auto28.5

177.2Teleop74.7

58.9Endgame39

0Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	53
teleop	205	149
endgame	88	132
foul	5	0
total	372	334

Result

Final score

372 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 119.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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