Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.03 – 182.49

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 96.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.4 ±11.7

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 20.24Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 56.4Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 136.39Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.4 ±11.6

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 67.34Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 77.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 37.27Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2915, 8032, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2915, 8032, 955

Auto

49.6 23%

Teleop

114.5 53%

Endgame

50.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2990, 997, 6465

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2990, 997, 6465

Auto

17.7 10%

Teleop

92.0 51%

Endgame

69.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213pts

Blue projected score182.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.5
Score range: 147–248
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 194.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.4Season APEX316.4

49.6Auto17.7

114.5Teleop92

50.6Endgame69.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	25
teleop	178	148
endgame	89	85
foul	20	15
total	315	273

Result

Final score

315 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 96.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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