Qualification · Qualification 14
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
168.9 – 156.06
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
242 – 43
Prediction correct · off by 93.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.9 ±10
Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 25.8Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 45.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 97.63Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.9 ±12.7
Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 69.36Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 24.9Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 61.8Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5970, 2811, 4488
60
/ 100 compatProjected
168.9 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 5970, 2811, 4488
Auto
24.6 15%
Teleop
103.1 62%
Endgame
37.4 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10444, 9567, 2898
59
/ 100 compatProjected
156.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 10444, 9567, 2898
Auto
42.9 27%
Teleop
93.1 58%
Endgame
25.6 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score168.9pts
Blue projected score156.1pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 72%, blue 60%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 12.8
- Score range
- 120–205
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
415.9Season APEX195.9
24.6Auto42.9
103.1Teleop93.1
37.4Endgame25.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 34 | 13 |
| teleop | 162 | 22 |
| endgame | 41 | 8 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 242 | 43 |
Result
Final score
242 – 43
Prediction correct · off by 93.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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