Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.76 – 178.13

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 96.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.6 ±12

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 84.9Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 26.52Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 45.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279 ±12.2

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 26.52Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 105.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 46.59Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 1359, 4662

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 1359, 4662

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

76.2 47%

Endgame

61.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6831, 957, 2557

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6831, 957, 2557

Auto

48.2 28%

Teleop

98.1 56%

Endgame

28.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.8pts

Blue projected score178.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.4
Score range: 120–215
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 206.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.6Season APEX279

24.3Auto48.2

76.2Teleop98.1

61.6Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	19
teleop	143	66
endgame	92	41
foul	20	15
total	313	141

Result

Final score

313 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 96.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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