Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
185.21 – 131.49
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
164 – 351
Prediction missed · off by 120.4 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.2 ±10
Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 57.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 75.38Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 51.99Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.4 ±10.5
Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 75.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 22Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 34.11Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 997, 2930, 2811
65
/ 100 compatProjected
185.2 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 997, 2930, 2811
Auto
28.5 16%
Teleop
102.0 59%
Endgame
42.8 25%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 74%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6696, 6465, 4488
50
/ 100 compatProjected
131.5 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 6696, 6465, 4488
Auto
28.3 21%
Teleop
88.8 66%
Endgame
16.7 12%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 74%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.46
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score185.2pts
Blue projected score131.5pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 74%, blue 69%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 53.7
- Score range
- 95–221
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
369.2Season APEX423.4
28.5Auto28.3
102Teleop88.8
42.8Endgame16.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 37 |
| teleop | 70 | 222 |
| endgame | 72 | 87 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 164 | 351 |
Result
Final score
164 – 351
Prediction missed · off by 120.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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