Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.47 – 114.38

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.8 ±13.3

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 30.29Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 85.73Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 70.45Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±12.8

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 48.15Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 30.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 35.94Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2550, 10444, 2915

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2550, 10444, 2915

Auto

26.3 14%

Teleop

100.8 54%

Endgame

59.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5975, 2733, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5975, 2733, 2635

Auto

16.5 16%

Teleop

61.1 57%

Endgame

28.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.5pts

Blue projected score114.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.1
Score range: 75–225
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 216.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.8Season APEX296.2

26.3Auto16.5

100.8Teleop61.1

59.8Endgame28.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	10
teleop	42	25
endgame	22	14
foul	0	5
total	80	54

Result

Final score

80 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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