Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.96 – 181.23

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 1.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282 ±12.2

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 47.86Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 69.25Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 23.85Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.1 ±11.1

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 41.52Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 43.32Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 96.39Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2635, 2557, 3669

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2635, 2557, 3669

Auto

27.0 20%

Teleop

70.5 52%

Endgame

36.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2898, 10991, 8032

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2898, 10991, 8032

Auto

43.0 26%

Teleop

82.8 51%

Endgame

36.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141pts

Blue projected score181.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.3
Score range: 99–223
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 233.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282Season APEX376.1

27Auto43

70.5Teleop82.8

36.8Endgame36.6

74Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	38
teleop	73	100
endgame	27	39
foul	5	5
total	143	182

Result

Final score

143 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 1.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree