Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

387.57 – 392.75

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

276 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 91.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.8 ±9.8

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 162.83Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 177.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 47.16Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.2 ±9.5

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 44.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 149.19Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 199.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2471, 1425, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2471, 1425, 10991

Auto

105.2 28%

Teleop

198.6 54%

Endgame

65.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2898, 6696, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2898, 6696, 1540

Auto

74.3 19%

Teleop

216.7 57%

Endgame

91.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score387.6pts

Blue projected score392.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.2
Score range: 346–435
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 598 vs event baseline 233.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.8Season APEX569.2

105.2Auto74.3

198.6Teleop216.7

65.9Endgame91.5

10Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	72
teleop	110	144
endgame	26	61
foul	40	45
total	276	322

Result

Final score

276 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 91.2 pts

Match videos

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