Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

402.32 – 399.21

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

281 – 347

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.8 ±9.8

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 51.92Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 182.68Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 167.72Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.2 ±9.5

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 46.1Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 151.42Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 201.69Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10991, 1425, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10991, 1425, 2471

Auto

103.0 27%

Teleop

209.2 55%

Endgame

70.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2898, 6696, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2898, 6696, 1540

Auto

72.6 19%

Teleop

231.4 59%

Endgame

87.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score402.3pts

Blue projected score399.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.1
Score range: 357–444
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 628 vs event baseline 232.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.8Season APEX569.2

103Auto72.6

209.2Teleop231.4

70.4Endgame87.8

8Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	86
teleop	121	115
endgame	34	116
foul	5	30
total	281	347

Result

Final score

281 – 347

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 pts

Match videos

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