ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.8 – 167.69

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 44.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±9.8

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 137.8Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 48.27Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 66.73Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.6 ±10.4

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 23.31Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 73.84Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 70.54Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 4951, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 4951, 2386

Auto

60.2 24%

Teleop

109.8 44%

Endgame

82.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 5024, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 5024, 1229

Auto

36.8 22%

Teleop

87.3 53%

Endgame

40.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252.8pts

Blue projected score167.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.1
Score range: 132–289
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 200.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.8Season APEX307.6

60.2Auto36.8

109.8Teleop87.3

82Endgame40.6

38Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	29
teleop	75	102
endgame	26	56
foul	20	0
total	184	187

Result

Final score

184 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 44.1 pts

Match videos

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