ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.12 – 235.58

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

504 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.1 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 240.17Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 10.39Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 181.56Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.2 ±10.4

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 85.28Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 19.46Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 130.84Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 771, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 771, 5406

Auto

70.9 17%

Teleop

262.0 61%

Endgame

95.1 22%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3739, 2634, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3739, 2634, 4920

Auto

30.3 13%

Teleop

122.0 53%

Endgame

78.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score432.1pts

Blue projected score235.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.5
Score range: 200–468
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 787 vs event baseline 198.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.1Season APEX360.2

70.9Auto30.3

262Teleop122

95.1Endgame78.7

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	32
teleop	313	153
endgame	92	98
foul	0	0
total	504	283

Result

Final score

504 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.