ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.04 – 249.91

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552 ±12.7

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 11.89Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 173.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 248.05Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±9.8

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 136.97Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 47.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 65.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11215, 4039, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

433 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11215, 4039, 4678

Auto

78.9 19%

Teleop

252.3 59%

Endgame

95.0 22%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4907, 4951, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 4951, 2386

Auto

63.0 25%

Teleop

110.4 44%

Endgame

75.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score433pts

Blue projected score249.9pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 183.1
Score range: 215–468
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 677 vs event baseline 196.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552Season APEX425.8

78.9Auto63

252.3Teleop110.4

95Endgame75.6

45Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	46
teleop	227	109
endgame	121	116
foul	5	0
total	406	271

Result

Final score

406 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Match videos

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