ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.36 – 189.24

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.6 ±10.4

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 21.23Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 72.09Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 69.04Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.3 ±10.4

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 32.79Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 39.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 116.53Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3756, 5024, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 5024, 1229

Auto

37.4 24%

Teleop

85.3 54%

Endgame

36.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6875, 781, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6875, 781, 865

Auto

51.3 27%

Teleop

98.4 52%

Endgame

40.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.4pts

Blue projected score189.2pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.9
Score range: 127–224
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 196.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.6Season APEX313.3

37.4Auto51.3

85.3Teleop98.4

36.3Endgame40.9

19Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	68
teleop	97	30
endgame	67	19
foul	0	0
total	197	117

Result

Final score

197 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 53.4 pts

Match videos

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