ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.87 – 178.51

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.9 ±10.5

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 47.67Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 33.33Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 31.87Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±11.7

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 79.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 23.69Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 75.76Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 5912, 5719

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 772, 5912, 5719

Auto

26.5 24%

Teleop

57.1 52%

Endgame

26.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4688, 4617, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4688, 4617, 5885

Auto

39.0 22%

Teleop

82.2 47%

Endgame

54.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score178.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.6
Score range: 78–214
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 196.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.9Season APEX319.7

26.5Auto39

57.1Teleop82.2

26.2Endgame54.7

17Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	34
teleop	45	154
endgame	26	102
foul	5	0
total	116	290

Result

Final score

116 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Match videos

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