ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

253.76 – 200.69

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.2 ±10.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 24.1Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 91.54Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 138.12Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.3 ±10.4

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 37.06Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 43.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 120.48Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2634, 3739, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 3739, 4920

Auto

30.3 12%

Teleop

136.9 55%

Endgame

80.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6875, 781, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6875, 781, 865

Auto

43.1 21%

Teleop

107.6 53%

Endgame

51.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score253.8pts

Blue projected score200.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.1
Score range: 165–290
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 197.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.2Season APEX313.3

30.3Auto43.1

136.9Teleop107.6

80.9Endgame51.9

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	82
teleop	54	58
endgame	71	0
foul	0	0
total	158	140

Result

Final score

158 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Match videos

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