ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.59 – 153.69

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

520 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.1 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 231.87Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 3.91Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 173.81Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.6 ±10.4

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 17.53Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 70.2Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 65.96Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 771, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 771, 5406

Auto

69.0 17%

Teleop

246.3 60%

Endgame

94.4 23%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 5024, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 5024, 1229

Auto

39.0 26%

Teleop

75.6 51%

Endgame

34.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score409.6pts

Blue projected score153.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 255.9
Score range: 119–445
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 711 vs event baseline 195.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.1Season APEX307.6

69Auto39

246.3Teleop75.6

94.4Endgame34.6

18Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	35
teleop	319	116
endgame	101	40
foul	20	0
total	520	191

Result

Final score

520 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts

Match videos

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