ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.17 – 167.87

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±9.8

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 136.91Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 45.07Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 67.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±11.7

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 20Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 74.36Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 73.51Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 4951, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 4951, 2386

Auto

63.4 26%

Teleop

103.2 42%

Endgame

81.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4617, 4688, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4617, 4688, 5885

Auto

39.3 24%

Teleop

80.0 49%

Endgame

44.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score249.2pts

Blue projected score167.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.3
Score range: 133–284
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 194.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.8Season APEX319.7

63.4Auto39.3

103.2Teleop80

81.5Endgame44.9

28Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	40
teleop	135	98
endgame	54	91
foul	0	0
total	256	229

Result

Final score

256 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Match videos

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