ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

472.3 – 110.93

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 89.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.2 ±9.8

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 21.88Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 187.87Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 262.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.9 ±10.5

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 46.65Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 32.47Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 31.81Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5689, 4039, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5689, 4039, 4678

Auto

87.9 19%

Teleop

272.2 58%

Endgame

106.1 23%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 772, 5912, 5719

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 772, 5912, 5719

Auto

25.8 24%

Teleop

56.6 52%

Endgame

26.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score472.3pts

Blue projected score110.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 361.4
Score range: 76–507
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 194.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.2Season APEX252.9

87.9Auto25.8

272.2Teleop56.6

106.1Endgame26.1

43Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	27
teleop	191	54
endgame	40	20
foul	5	5
total	299	106

Result

Final score

299 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 89.1 pts

Match videos

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