ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

426.67 – 443.87

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

409 – 416

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.2 ±9.8

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 171.12Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 10.16Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 245.39Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.1 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 243.91Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 15.21Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 184.75Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4039, 5689, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4039, 5689, 4678

Auto

78.0 19%

Teleop

250.0 59%

Endgame

93.4 22%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2702, 771, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 771, 5406

Auto

75.3 17%

Teleop

270.3 61%

Endgame

95.1 22%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score426.7pts

Blue projected score443.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.2
Score range: 391–480
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 825 vs event baseline 200.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.2Season APEX591.1

78Auto75.3

250Teleop270.3

93.4Endgame95.1

42Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	90
teleop	234	197
endgame	77	129
foul	5	0
total	409	416

Result

Final score

409 – 416

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.