ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.25 – 196.8

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.2 ±10.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 21.83Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 87.7Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 133.72Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±11.7

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 85.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 29.74Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 81.95Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2634, 3739, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 3739, 4920

Auto

30.5 13%

Teleop

126.9 53%

Endgame

82.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4688, 4617, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4688, 4617, 5885

Auto

38.2 20%

Teleop

94.3 48%

Endgame

62.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score243.3pts

Blue projected score196.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.4
Score range: 161–279
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 200.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.2Season APEX319.7

30.5Auto38.2

126.9Teleop94.3

82.2Endgame62.2

6Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	54
teleop	121	100
endgame	80	23
foul	45	0
total	294	177

Result

Final score

294 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Match videos

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