ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.08 – 193.3

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 187.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.9 ±13.3

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 24Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 13.43Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 97.65Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.6 ±9.8

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 68.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 97.65Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 26.79Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11362, 8081, 8789

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11362, 8081, 8789

Auto

30.2 23%

Teleop

67.5 51%

Endgame

34.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 4678, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4951, 4678, 2386

Auto

28.1 15%

Teleop

100.1 52%

Endgame

65.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.1pts

Blue projected score193.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.2
Score range: 101–227
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 188.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.9Season APEX518.6

30.2Auto28.1

67.5Teleop100.1

34.6Endgame65.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	64
teleop	9	286
endgame	4	110
foul	0	0
total	26	460

Result

Final score

26 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 187.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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