ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.93 – 221.19

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.4 ±11.2

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 12.17Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 12.03Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 46.73Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.8 ±9.8

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 31.16Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 131.3Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 58.73Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10611, 6725, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10611, 6725, 772

Auto

5.3 7%

Teleop

54.1 74%

Endgame

13.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6875, 4907, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6875, 4907, 1229

Auto

55.3 26%

Teleop

99.2 46%

Endgame

62.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.9pts

Blue projected score221.2pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.3
Score range: 36–256
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 195.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.4Season APEX377.8

5.3Auto55.3

54.1Teleop99.2

13.5Endgame62.2

15Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	55
teleop	20	149
endgame	11	89
foul	0	0
total	55	293

Result

Final score

55 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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