ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.29 – 187.71

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 102.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±13.1

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 100.29Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 29.43Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 114.57Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175 ±12.8

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 64.57Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 8.57Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 114.57Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6875, 11215, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6875, 11215, 4039

Auto

36.9 15%

Teleop

134.9 55%

Endgame

72.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 771, 7058, 4617

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 771, 7058, 4617

Auto

28.0 15%

Teleop

104.0 55%

Endgame

55.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.3pts

Blue projected score187.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.6
Score range: 153–279
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 193.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316Season APEX175

36.9Auto28

134.9Teleop104

72.6Endgame55.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	15
teleop	161	3
endgame	78	7
foul	0	0
total	286	25

Result

Final score

286 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 102.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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