ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

364.18 – 294.99

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 290

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.6 ±9.8

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 14.77Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 271.81Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 77.6Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.5 ±10.4

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 188.98Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 15.92Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 90.09Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 771, 4678, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 771, 4678, 5024

Auto

84.1 23%

Teleop

205.3 57%

Endgame

72.6 20%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4039, 3756, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

295 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4039, 3756, 3739

Auto

47.3 16%

Teleop

170.3 58%

Endgame

73.7 25%

Strengths

· 4039 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score364.2pts

Blue projected score295pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.2
Score range: 260–399
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 194.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.6Season APEX397.5

84.1Auto47.3

205.3Teleop170.3

72.6Endgame73.7

30Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	42
teleop	91	166
endgame	81	67
foul	5	15
total	245	290

Result

Final score

245 – 290

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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