ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.77 – 78.23

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 104 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.5 ±12.2

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 60.05Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 4.73Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 10.99Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.4 ±11.7

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 37.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 22.02Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 18.4Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5885, 7058, 11362

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5885, 7058, 11362

Auto

36.4 49%

Teleop

23.7 32%

Endgame

14.2 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 781, 8081, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 8081, 5689

Auto

18.1 24%

Teleop

19.5 26%

Endgame

37.3 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.8pts

Blue projected score78.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.5
Score range: 41–113
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 194.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.5Season APEX178.4

36.4Auto18.1

23.7Teleop19.5

14.2Endgame37.3

34Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	35
teleop	97	64
endgame	95	30
foul	0	0
total	233	129

Result

Final score

233 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 104 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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