ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

414.52 – 137.8

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.2 ±11.2

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 232.31Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 7.59Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 174.62Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286 ±11.7

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 64.04Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 38.52Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 35.24Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 6162, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 6162, 5406

Auto

71.3 17%

Teleop

257.1 63%

Endgame

82.4 20%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2386, 9262, 4940

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2386, 9262, 4940

Auto

34.5 25%

Teleop

68.8 51%

Endgame

32.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score414.5pts

Blue projected score137.8pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 276.7
Score range: 103–450
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 192.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.2Season APEX286

71.3Auto34.5

257.1Teleop68.8

82.4Endgame32.4

17Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	34
teleop	245	68
endgame	89	70
foul	0	0
total	395	172

Result

Final score

395 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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