ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.88 – 136.37

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.8 ±10.4

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 76.33Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 141.51Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 21.04Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.2 ±10.4

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 19.74Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 79.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 37.16Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5024, 4920, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5024, 4920, 2634

Auto

43.2 18%

Teleop

130.2 56%

Endgame

61.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5408, 4688, 5719

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5408, 4688, 5719

Auto

23.9 17%

Teleop

80.1 58%

Endgame

33.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.9pts

Blue projected score136.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.5
Score range: 101–274
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 194.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.8Season APEX272.2

43.2Auto23.9

130.2Teleop80.1

61.1Endgame33.3

11Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	27
teleop	159	26
endgame	81	19
foul	0	15
total	269	87

Result

Final score

269 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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