ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.29 – 294.93

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±12.4

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 16.33Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 7.99Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 126.97Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.4 ±9.8

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 174.45Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 89.26Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 31.22Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8081, 6725, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8081, 6725, 4907

Auto

38.0 25%

Teleop

69.0 45%

Endgame

45.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5406, 3739, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5406, 3739, 6875

Auto

46.8 16%

Teleop

171.9 59%

Endgame

70.9 24%

Strengths

· 5406 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.3pts

Blue projected score294.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.6
Score range: 116–330
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 193.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.8Season APEX463.4

38Auto46.8

69Teleop171.9

45.6Endgame70.9

54Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	56
teleop	52	195
endgame	92	55
foul	15	0
total	217	306

Result

Final score

217 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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