ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.75 – 116.12

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±11.7

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 32.27Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 40.24Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX -2.76Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±11.2

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 35.01Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 36.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 44.78Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9262, 4951, 7058

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9262, 4951, 7058

Auto

34.6 54%

Teleop

13.2 21%

Endgame

16.4 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8789, 781, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8789, 781, 772

Auto

11.1 10%

Teleop

71.5 63%

Endgame

30.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.8pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.4
Score range: 35–151
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 194.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.4Season APEX307.5

34.6Auto11.1

13.2Teleop71.5

16.4Endgame30.9

4Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	15
teleop	67	85
endgame	36	54
foul	15	0
total	137	154

Result

Final score

137 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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