ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.97 – 85.49

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.3 ±10.4

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 17.1Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 66.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 19.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127 ±11

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 17.64Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 24.85Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 771, 2386, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 771, 2386, 3756

Auto

25.6 25%

Teleop

43.9 42%

Endgame

34.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5719, 11362, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5719, 11362, 5689

Auto

17.6 21%

Teleop

37.4 45%

Endgame

27.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103pts

Blue projected score85.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.5
Score range: 50–138
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 196.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.3Season APEX127

25.6Auto17.6

43.9Teleop37.4

34.5Endgame27.6

17Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	15
teleop	33	7
endgame	31	7
foul	0	0
total	95	29

Result

Final score

95 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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