ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.68 – 530.78

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 557

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±11

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 31.58Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 124.81Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 15.29Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 629.7 ±11.2

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 269.4Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 229.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 32.22Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5912, 865, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5912, 865, 10611

Auto

46.6 28%

Teleop

83.1 50%

Endgame

38.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4678, 2702, 4940

/ 100 compat

Projected

530.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4678, 2702, 4940

Auto

102.5 19%

Teleop

319.9 61%

Endgame

106.1 20%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.7pts

Blue projected score530.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -359.1
Score range: 137–566
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 732 vs event baseline 193.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.5Season APEX629.7

46.6Auto102.5

83.1Teleop319.9

38Endgame106.1

11Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	116
teleop	97	296
endgame	40	145
foul	0	0
total	175	557

Result

Final score

175 – 557

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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