ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.22 – 85.56

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.6 ±10.4

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 58.56Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 142.71Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 81.95Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.7 ±12.8

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 59.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 19.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 6.88Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1229, 4920, 4688

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1229, 4920, 4688

Auto

33.6 12%

Teleop

157.3 56%

Endgame

90.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5885, 4617, 6162

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5885, 4617, 6162

Auto

37.0 47%

Teleop

21.0 26%

Endgame

21.3 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score283.2pts

Blue projected score85.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.7
Score range: 51–318
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 193.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.6Season APEX260.7

33.6Auto37

157.3Teleop21

90.5Endgame21.3

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	20
teleop	160	49
endgame	51	18
foul	20	5
total	269	92

Result

Final score

269 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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