ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.95 – 313.2

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.8 ±10.4

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 40.69Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 83.08Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 18.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.3 ±11.2

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 79.88Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 41.79Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 191.53Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9262, 3739, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9262, 3739, 2634

Auto

27.2 21%

Teleop

60.7 46%

Endgame

43.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5885, 4940, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5885, 4940, 5406

Auto

65.1 21%

Teleop

176.5 56%

Endgame

73.0 23%

Strengths

· 5406 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142pts

Blue projected score313.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171.2
Score range: 105–350
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 207.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.8Season APEX470.3

27.2Auto65.1

60.7Teleop176.5

43.9Endgame73

19Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	91
teleop	53	151
endgame	46	64
foul	0	0
total	119	306

Result

Final score

119 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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