ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.56 – 85.59

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.3 ±11.7

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -3.24Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 183.52Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 12.28Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.3 ±13.1

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 40.36Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 23.65Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 21.58Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6725, 4039, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6725, 4039, 2634

Auto

30.5 16%

Teleop

111.0 58%

Endgame

51.4 27%

Strengths

· 4039 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 781, 5408, 11215

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 5408, 11215

Auto

10.6 12%

Teleop

45.6 53%

Endgame

29.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.6pts

Blue projected score85.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107
Score range: 51–228
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 193.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.3Season APEX222.3

30.5Auto10.6

111Teleop45.6

51.4Endgame29.4

39Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	16
teleop	191	17
endgame	47	23
foul	0	5
total	291	61

Result

Final score

291 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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