ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.92 – 64.85

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±11.2

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 57.3Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 32.83Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 4.79Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.6 ±10.4

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 13.12Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 23.21Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 28.52Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2386, 772, 8081

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2386, 772, 8081

Auto

16.3 17%

Teleop

49.4 51%

Endgame

31.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10611, 5689, 9262

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10611, 5689, 9262

Auto

11.4 20%

Teleop

22.0 39%

Endgame

23.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score64.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.1
Score range: 30–130
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 194.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.8Season APEX214.6

16.3Auto11.4

49.4Teleop22

31.2Endgame23.2

33Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	25
teleop	104	49
endgame	66	11
foul	0	5
total	201	90

Result

Final score

201 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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