ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.4 – 345.59

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

254 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.5 ±11

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 8.99Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 115.08Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 31.33Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.3 ±10.4

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 229.27Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 34.05Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 82.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11362, 865, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11362, 865, 4951

Auto

39.2 25%

Teleop

71.6 46%

Endgame

44.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2702, 6875, 4688

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 6875, 4688

Auto

51.0 15%

Teleop

214.0 61%

Endgame

84.0 24%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.4pts

Blue projected score345.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -190.2
Score range: 120–381
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 192.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.5Season APEX450.3

39.2Auto51

71.6Teleop214

44.7Endgame84

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	61
teleop	116	225
endgame	68	69
foul	0	10
total	254	365

Result

Final score

254 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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