ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.15 – 266.24

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.4 ±11.7

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 26.72Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 39.12Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 91.31Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.9 ±11.7

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 184.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 33.06Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 48.4Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5408, 8789, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5408, 8789, 3739

Auto

23.8 16%

Teleop

90.8 60%

Endgame

36.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4039, 4940, 5719

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4039, 4940, 5719

Auto

45.0 17%

Teleop

164.6 62%

Endgame

55.6 21%

Strengths

· 4039 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.2pts

Blue projected score266.2pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.1
Score range: 122–301
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 192.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.4Season APEX325.9

23.8Auto45

90.8Teleop164.6

36Endgame55.6

0Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	59
teleop	80	131
endgame	57	73
foul	0	0
total	147	263

Result

Final score

147 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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