ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.6 – 168.57

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426 ±9.8

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 62.39Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 16.7Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 173.51Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.5 ±13.1

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 63.95Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 79.08Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 25.54Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1229, 771, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1229, 771, 5406

Auto

49.5 19%

Teleop

143.9 56%

Endgame

61.8 24%

Strengths

· 5406 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5885, 5024, 11215

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5885, 5024, 11215

Auto

44.9 28%

Teleop

79.3 49%

Endgame

38.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252.6pts

Blue projected score168.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84
Score range: 134–288
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 192.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426Season APEX303.5

49.5Auto44.9

143.9Teleop79.3

61.8Endgame38.8

29Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	46
teleop	134	81
endgame	72	27
foul	15	0
total	266	154

Result

Final score

266 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.