ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.25 – 152.26

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423 ±11.7

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 10.03Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 44.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 279.27Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.5 ±11.2

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 6.39Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 126.6Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 19.27Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7058, 5912, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7058, 5912, 4678

Auto

74.1 22%

Teleop

196.3 59%

Endgame

62.0 19%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6162, 4907, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6162, 4907, 3756

Auto

46.8 32%

Teleop

66.6 46%

Endgame

31.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score334.3pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 182
Score range: 117–369
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 191.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423Season APEX351.5

74.1Auto46.8

196.3Teleop66.6

62Endgame31.2

22Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	53
teleop	79	60
endgame	28	57
foul	20	0
total	229	170

Result

Final score

229 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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