ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.42 – 179.77

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.8 ±10.4

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 41.42Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 7.67Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 224.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.8 ±12.8

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 8.85Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 23.15Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 147.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5719, 2634, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5719, 2634, 2702

Auto

47.3 18%

Teleop

154.5 57%

Endgame

67.0 25%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8081, 4617, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8081, 4617, 4920

Auto

21.2 12%

Teleop

81.4 47%

Endgame

72.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score273.4pts

Blue projected score179.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.7
Score range: 146–307
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 191.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.8Season APEX286.8

47.3Auto21.2

154.5Teleop81.4

67Endgame72.4

44Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	36
teleop	182	43
endgame	78	57
foul	0	5
total	325	141

Result

Final score

325 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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