ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.1 – 73.93

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269 ±11.7

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -7.06Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 88.51Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 76.65Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.7 ±11

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 7.22Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 40.24Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 26.47Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6725, 3739, 4688

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6725, 3739, 4688

Auto

17.9 11%

Teleop

88.0 56%

Endgame

50.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11362, 781, 9262

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11362, 781, 9262

Auto

22.8 32%

Teleop

30.6 43%

Endgame

17.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.1pts

Blue projected score73.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.2
Score range: 39–193
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 191.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269Season APEX200.7

17.9Auto22.8

88Teleop30.6

50.3Endgame17.2

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	17
teleop	138	47
endgame	35	40
foul	0	5
total	198	109

Result

Final score

198 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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