ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.38 – 224.91

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.2 ±9.8

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 30.07Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 88.52Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 43.79Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.3 ±11.7

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 7.24Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 33.52Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 184.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5689, 5024, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5689, 5024, 772

Auto

27.9 18%

Teleop

99.9 63%

Endgame

30.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6162, 4951, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6162, 4951, 4039

Auto

39.4 18%

Teleop

120.1 55%

Endgame

59.9 27%

Strengths

· 4039 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.4pts

Blue projected score224.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.5
Score range: 127–260
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 192.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.2Season APEX347.3

27.9Auto39.4

99.9Teleop120.1

30.6Endgame59.9

13Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	63
teleop	41	109
endgame	20	31
foul	0	5
total	72	208

Result

Final score

72 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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