ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.84 – 467.75

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.7 ±15.1

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 32.55Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 22.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 7.91Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.1 ±9.8

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 286.17Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 156Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 25.58Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4940, 11215, 7058

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4940, 11215, 7058

Auto

22.7 38%

Teleop

38.1 63%

Endgame

-0.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4678, 4920, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4678, 4920, 3756

Auto

64.3 14%

Teleop

280.4 61%

Endgame

115.2 25%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.8pts

Blue projected score467.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -404.9
Score range: 28–503
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 192.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.7Season APEX548.1

22.7Auto64.3

38.1Teleop280.4

-0.3Endgame115.2

3Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	88
teleop	33	208
endgame	25	102
foul	0	0
total	70	398

Result

Final score

70 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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