ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.21 – 143.58

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

342 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 96.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.7 ±10.4

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 111.81Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 23.84Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 73.56Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.8 ±10.5

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 49.86Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 24.29Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 69.43Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 865, 3756, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 865, 3756, 5024

Auto

51.4 25%

Teleop

112.1 54%

Endgame

46.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 772, 11362, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 772, 11362, 1229

Auto

19.9 14%

Teleop

78.6 54%

Endgame

46.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.2pts

Blue projected score143.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.6
Score range: 107–246
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 207.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.7Season APEX242.8

51.4Auto19.9

112.1Teleop78.6

46Endgame46

28Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	21
teleop	183	36
endgame	65	22
foul	15	5
total	342	84

Result

Final score

342 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 96.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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