ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.82 – 41.51

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 92.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.7 ±12.8

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 19.21Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 56.22Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 35.39Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±10.4

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX -5.12Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX -0.13Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 46.76Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4617, 2386, 8789

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4617, 2386, 8789

Auto

27.8 27%

Teleop

52.3 51%

Endgame

22.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10611, 771, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10611, 771, 5885

Auto

36.7 92%

Teleop

-8.5 0%

Endgame

11.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.8pts

Blue projected score41.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.3
Score range: 7–146
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 192.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.7Season APEX247.5

27.8Auto36.7

52.3Teleop-8.5

22.9Endgame11.8

0Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	36
teleop	48	111
endgame	56	61
foul	0	0
total	129	208

Result

Final score

129 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 92.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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