ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.38 – 350.12

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 57.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.9 ±10.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -0.36Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 103.83Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 11.91Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.2 ±9.9

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 172.88Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 133.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 44.08Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2634, 865, 5408

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 865, 5408

Auto

29.5 26%

Teleop

54.8 47%

Endgame

31.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5406, 4907, 5912

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5406, 4907, 5912

Auto

77.8 22%

Teleop

185.0 53%

Endgame

86.5 25%

Strengths

· 5406 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.4pts

Blue projected score350.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -234.7
Score range: 81–384
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 190.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.9Season APEX554.2

29.5Auto77.8

54.8Teleop185

31.1Endgame86.5

25Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	76
teleop	102	206
endgame	75	63
foul	0	0
total	225	345

Result

Final score

225 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 57.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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